This week Iâm at the Integrated Marine Biosphere Research (IMBeR) IMBIZO5 event at the Woods Hall Oceanographic Institute. IMBIZO is a Zulu word meaning a meeting or gathering called by a traditional leader and this week a group of marine scientists have heeded the call.
The fifth meeting in the IMBIZO series is focussing on Marine Biosphere Research for a Sustainable Ocean: Linking ecosystems, future states and resource management. Its aim is help understand, quantify and compare the historic and present structure and functioning of linked ocean and human systems to predict and project changes including developing scenarios and options for securing or transitioning towards ocean sustainability.
Woods Hole is located in the US state of Massachusetts. It is well-known centre of excellence in marine research and the world’s largest private, non-profit oceanographic research institution. Despite my career travels, it was somewhere I had never visited before. So this was a great opportunity to see a place I had read a lot about, and to meet people from a variety of marine disciplines.
After my Saturday morning flight to Boston, my first challenge was to find the fantastically named âPeter Pan Busâ for the two hour drive to Falmouth, a town near the Woods Hole Institute. Regular readers will spot that this is the second Falmouth Iâve visited this summer, as I gave talk in the Cornish version in July. Itâs actually slightly odd to hear familiar place names such as Plymouth, Barnstaple and Taunton in a different country. Carrying my poster also singled me out as an IMBIZO attendee, Lisa stopped to give me a lift to hotel as I walked through the town â not sure that would happen back in the UK!
I needed to be up early on Sunday as we had an Infographics workshop led by Indi Hodgson-Johnston from the University of Tasmania. We learnt about how to work through the creative process, starting with choosing a theme through to defining 4 to 8 factoids (1 to 2 sentences with a single message) to finally bringing the factoids and accompanying images together into the infographic.
Interestingly, Indi highlighted that only 20% of the people who start watching a video on social media are still watching after 15 seconds! In addition, most watch without sound. The key message for me was to make very short videos with subtitles. Or better still make infographics.
The workshop itself began on Monday with three keynotes. The first by Edward Allison, of the University of Washington, focussed on the limits of prediction and started by defining terms and their time scales:
- Forecasts: from minutes to weeks e.g. weather forecasting
- Predictions: from months to years e.g. climate variability
- Scenarios: front decades to centuries e.g. climate change
As we go from forecasts to predictions uncertainty increases, and further still when we move to scenarios. Therefore, we need to be clear about the limits of whatâs possible. Secondly, whilst weâve become good at understanding bio-chemical and physical processes, uncertainty grows as we move to modelling ecosystems and human interactions.
Mary Ann Moran from the University of Georgia spoke about the âMetabolic diversity and evolution in marine biogeochemical cycling and ocean ecosystem processesâ and emphasised the linkage between phytoplankton and microbes, and how omics (fields such asÂ metabolomics, (meta)-proteomics and -transcriptomics) can help us to understand this complex relationship.
The final keynote was by Andre Punt from the University of Washington on âFisheries Management Strategy Evaluationâ. It looked at how we move from data on fish catches to deciding what a sustainable quota is for managing fishing stocks. Management strategy evaluation involves running multiple simulations to compare the relative effectiveness of achieving management objectives i.e., a “fisheries flight simulator”. Given the different stakeholders in this debate will often have opposing requirements; the wrong choice can have catastrophic effects on either fish populations or livelihoods. Hence, this approach often involves finding the least worst solution.
The workshop streams began in the afternoon and Iâm in one focussing on âCritical Constraints on Predictionâ. We all gave 3 minute lightening talks to introduce ourselves and started the discussion on the topic of uncertainties and how these can be reduced in future projections.
Exploring this topic over the next few days is going to be really interesting!